High return on investments in Ukraine’s future

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Your partner with unparalleled experience in transformational investments

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Our Thinking

Yuriy Vitrenko on CNN about the U.S.-Ukraine natural resources agreement

May 2025

Why Privatization of SOEs in Ukraine is a ‘Sweet Spot’ investment opportunity

From our materials for the Milken Global Conference, May 2025

Why despite massive rebuilding requirement this avenue for investments is questionably self-sustainable?

From our materials for the Milken Global Conference, May 2025

Why untapped greenfield opportunities have inherent big stakes, but could have even bigger hurdles?

From our materials for the Milken Global Conference, May 2025

Explore All Insights

AYA Capital LLC

Degtyarivska street, building 48, office 609

04112

Kyiv, Ukraine

E-mail: info@ayacapital.com

Triple bottom line opportunity for the Western private capital

Investing in Ukraine involves more than reconstruction efforts - it offers realizable lucrative opportunities for Western private equity investors that are not commonly found in emerging markets:

Substantial returns through large-scale opportunities. Historic Emerging Markets’ buy-outs in post-conflict regions delivered >3 Multiple on Invested Capital. Ukraine’s discount to peers implies similar headroom.
Strengthening an allied economy in a strategically significant region.
Aligning reputationally with Western values and strategic objectives.

The following investment opportunities in Ukraine stand out:

1. Privatization of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and Structural Market Reforms – the most promising, self-sustaining, and viable tens-of-billions-dollar opportunity that also unlocks the full value of other avenues for investments.

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2. Rebuilding of Ukraine (Public Housing and Infrastructure)

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3. Greenfield projects (Energy, Mining)

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Privatization of Ukrainian SOEs as a ‘Sweet Spot’

Ukraine is the country with the greatest influence from traditional SOEs, which have a presence in 92.2% of sectors across the economy. Total number of SOEs is ~3,116 in Ukraine (2024) vs typically only a few dozen to a few hundred in most EU/OECD countries.
Ukraine is declaring its commitment to building a market economy. It includes striving for a more competitive, market-driven environment with a reduced role for government in the economy.
Ukraine’s major SOEs, like Naftogaz, Ukrzaliznytsia (Ukrainian railways), Energoatom and PrivatBank, present sizeable multi-billion-dollar investment opportunities. Empirical data illustrate compelling value propositions: e.g., Naftogaz presents multibillion-dollar opportunity with 3-5x return post-restructuring.
There is substantial upside potential and sustainable operational cash flows from major SOEs, providing ample opportunity for private equity-driven turnaround strategies.
Historical data from transitional markets affirm PE’s capability to enhance operational efficiencies of privatized companies, implement governance reforms, and realize substantial returns through structured exits to strategic buyers or public market offerings post-stabilization.
Foreign private investors, specifically private equity funds, must proactively push for reforms as local stakeholders lack sufficient incentive or political will/leverage to shift public opinion and overcome entrenched resistance. Capacities and successes of IFIs in this respect are also limited or inconsistent.
Privatisation and market reforms will be accelerators for even larger opportunities: Rebuilding Efforts and Investments in Greenfields.

Massive Rebuilding Requirement, with a Drag From Unresolved Structural Problems

The UN estimates that as of 31 December 2024, the total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine is $524 billion (c.€500 billion) over the next decade, which is approximately 2.8 times the estimated nominal GDP of Ukraine for 2024. Recently surfaced estimates of reconstruction and modernization costs for Ukraine reached $1 trillion over a period of the next 14 years.
Despite a massive rebuilding requirement, the practical investment viability of reconstruction initiatives remains heavily contingent on prior market reforms, including regulatory clarity, removal of hidden subsidies, and establishment of clear, commercially viable demand.
Significant unresolved structural problems - such as demographic decline, regulatory ambiguities, historically subsidized markets, and rule-of-law concerns - limit the attractiveness of rebuilding investments in the immediate term without substantial de-risking measures.
While the war continues, there is a potential for some minor nuanced opportunities:
- Donor-backed Infra-PE. A tariff-anchored infrastructure with donor guarantees for some brownfield concessions may hit 12-15 % equity IRR - suitable for infra-PE or debt-plus-warrant structures.
- Digital infrastructure roll-up. 5G towers, regional fibre ISPs and data-centre campuses showed proven appetite. These could be cash-yielding projects with fast exit via strategic telecom groups.
- Investments in Western-Ukraine Cluster Play, with a focus on housing, logistics, and light-manufacturing in regions where demographics and security already support cash rent.

Untaped Greenfield Opportunities: Big Stakes, Bigger Hurdles

The hypothetically potential of this investment opportunity is of double- if not triple-digit-billion scale. The Ukrainian government’s 2024 pipeline of greenfield investment projects comprised 95 projects requiring approximately $27.1 billion in external financing (total project value $136 billion).
Total value of mineral resources in Ukraine is estimated by Ukrainian Geology Survey at nearly $15 trillion, which includes the Europe’s largest reserves of lithium, uranium and titanium.
Despite this multibillion theoretical pipeline value, the current viability for large-scale, foreign investments in this avenue is severely constrained by incompatibility of pure greenfield projects with the business model of PE on the one side, and by regulatory uncertainties, opaque licensing processes, unsustainable subsidies (e.g., renewable energy feed-in tariffs), and insufficient local infrastructure with unsatisfactory enforcement capabilities for the business model of strategic buyers on the other side.
Only strategic investors with diversified funding from their existing businesses can enable substantial investments in greenfield projects. But international precedents strongly support the sequencing approach where substantial greenfield investments typically follow successful market reforms and privatization. Hence, investments in standalone large-scale greenfield projects by large strategic investors remain unfeasible until foundational market transformations occur.
While the war continues, there is a potential for some minor nuanced opportunities: Critical-Minerals JV Path. JVs/buy-outs/tenders for exploration licences can be fused with EU offtake pre-payments, minimising upfront equity.

An investment management boutique with a proven track record in cross-border deals

We are focused on crafting transformative private equity projects with capital market development in Ukraine, critical both for high returns on investments and for country’s sustainable economic revival.

Over 15 years of Ukraine-focused advisory experience

Founded in 2010, AYA Capital quickly built a reputation as a nimble, boutique investment ‐ banking and private-equity firm that handled high-profile, cross-border deals for major Ukrainian industrial groups, state-owned enterprises, and international banks. Key co-founder Yuriy Vitrenko imported global expertise from Merrill Lynch and Amstar Europe, assembling a small team that operated with the rigor of large Western banks and delivered consistently meticulous execution.
Russia’s 2014 invasion prompted AYA Capital’s leadership to pause most commercial work and redirect its skills toward Ukraine’s institutional reforms.
Currently we are operating with a limited exposure due to the war, providing limited advisory services to investors and creditors.
We are using a partnership model where our involvement is compensated with equity or options.

View Detailed Timeline

Our Journey

2010-2012: Advancing Ambitious Projects with Proven Expertise

Founded in 2010, AYA Capital quickly gathered a top-notch team, with experience from leading international investment and consulting firms. Though operating as a boutique investment banking company with a team of fewer than 10 professionals, AYA Capital succeeded in delivering advisory services for high-profile, cross-border cases with international and local investors and creditors. The firm’s strategy mirrored the standards and methodologies of leading Western investment banks, which was a distinctive feature in Ukraine at that time.

2012-2013: Private Equity

The company has shifted its focus to private equity management services while maintaining its commitment to delivering impactful results, prioritizing high-quality deal execution and building a strong reputation.

2014: A Meaningful Pause

The onset of russian aggression against Ukraine prompted a significant shift. For patriotic reasons, the company’s leadership team became actively involved in supporting Ukraine’s institutional reforms, including orchestrating multibillion-dollar arbitrations against russia, contributing to Ukraine’s resilience and necessitating the temporary suspension of commercial operations.

2025: Shaping New Prospects

AYA Capital operates with a limited exposure. With a proven track record of executing large-scale, transformative projects, we are prepared to scale-up full operations when circumstances permit.

Our Mission

Fostering transformative private equity projects, vital for Ukraine’s sustainable prosperous future as a strong market economy built upon efficient inclusive capital markets.

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Developing efficient capital markets to help Ukraine succeed

At the heart of our philosophy is an evidence-based conviction in Ukraine's potential to become a thriving, strong nation only if a market economy with efficient inclusive capital markets is built, empowering individuals to create value both for themselves and for the greater community.
We are convinced that market economy, with the robust development of capital markets, represents the only viable, sustainable path toward lasting economic growth and peace for Ukraine.
For capital markets to serve this future effectively, their development must be anchored in unwavering principles: integrity, rule of law, and fair competition. Such way fosters an environment where prosperity is shared, ultimately elevating the wellbeing of society as a whole.
Our commitment extends to cultivating a financial ecosystem where trust prevails, legal protections are enforced, and private capital (particularly big private foreign capital as an accelerator of profound changes) plays a leading role.
Through this vision, we aspire not only to achieve high-return transformative outcomes for our clients and partners but to play a part in building a foundation for a prosperous, strong, and modern Ukrainian economy.
We firmly believe that the terms of engagement in Ukraine’s future and, consequently, self-sustainability of investments after the war will be shaped by those involved now. It is imperative for private capital to participate at this juncture - not only with financial resources but also with ideas, standards, and influence - to help define the future investment landscape.

Our Team

Yuriy Vitrenko

A recognized reputable figure in Ukrainian and EU markets, Yuriy brings over two decades’ experience with foreign investments in Ukraine Big4 (consulting to foreign investors), Major International Investment Bank (major M&A deals in Ukraine), PE (mid-cap investments by a US PE firm in Ukraine), managing the largest Ukrainian company and being the acting Minister of Energy in 2020-2021 (including working with foreign investors). A proven advocate for market reforms, Yuriy has a unique blend of global investment banking and public-sector leadership, with a record steering complex cross-border deals and corporate transformation under acute macro stress. Industries: natural resources, energy, finance, defense, expertise in geopolitics and domestic politics. Yuriy holds an MBA from the INSEAD international business school (France, Singapore) and is an is an ACCA member.

Oleksandr Vedenieiev

A CFA-certified analytics leader with 20+ years of experience in financial and energy markets. He led the analytical side of Ukrainian national O&G champion for 5 years and shaped the economic case for gas sector reforms, also having experience of leading analytical teams in some largest Ukrainian banks, supporting negotiation of multibillion-dollar cross-border deals, and covering the broad industrial analysis in Ukrainian economic landscape. Oleksandr pairs capital markets fluency with on-the-ground operational insight, including AI/data innovations that deliver critical edge in opaque environments of emerging and frontier market investing. Oleksandr holds a Master's degree in Banking from the Ukrainian Academy of Banking, a degree in International Private Law from the Kyiv Institute of International Relations, and such certifications as CFA and ERP (Energy Risk Professional) from GARP.

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Our Insights

Analysis and perspectives on Ukraine-focused topics from AYA Capital team.

Yuriy Vitrenko on CNN about the U.S.-Ukraine natural resources agreement

May 2025

Why Privatization of SOEs in Ukraine is a ‘Sweet Spot’ investment opportunity

From our materials for the Milken Global Conference, May 2025

Why despite massive rebuilding requirement this avenue for investments is questionably self-sustainable?

From our materials for the Milken Global Conference, May 2025

Why untapped greenfield opportunities have inherent big stakes, but could have even bigger hurdles?

From our materials for the Milken Global Conference, May 2025

Contact Us

To learn more about our current focus and projects we are working on, or if you want to joint our team, please get in touch.

Address: AYA Capital LLC

Degtyarivska street, building 48, office 609

04112

Kyiv, Ukraine

E-mail: info@ayacapital.com